Season 5 Preview

[TheMoonRat]

1st Division
In some respects I don't think this season will live upto last, with Akaash, a pro evo great no longer here. But on the other hand we have a returning champion hungry for success once more. I'm going for Markey to win for the 3rd time. I seemed to have the measure of him, but everyone else struggles so much with his attacking play, and with his recent League Cup win, he remains the most successful player here. It could once again be a season where a player wins but still goes down. I'm saying Soot if his bad luck continues, from shots hitting posts to losing the PSL Cup on penalties; too much FIFA has left his shooting composure in tatters.

Markey - CHAMPION
TheMoonRat
Eirik
Soot - RELEGATED

2nd Division
No-one can argue that Akaash has the greater ability of anyone here; the question is, when will he start showing it? Since his season 1 promotion from Quad 2, he's only won once in each of the next 3 seasons! Effendi has twice come within a single goal of promotion, and I fear his heartache will continue. Sky, after the dizzy heights of 2nd place last year, will be gunning for that 3rd place again. He showed he can score goals and win games, but at the vital times his defense can't hold on. Pig is up and down like a yo-yo; the Hyena raping has got to his head. Dizzy with success, he's going straight down without even scoring a goal.

Akaash - PROMOTED
Effendi
Skybluearmy
PigBenis - RELEGATED

3rd Division
Hyena's lack of a promotion last season due to his thrashing by PigBenis was the shock of the season, but I don't see anyone else strong enough to take on his fragile state. Mouse put on a stirling performance to win all 3 games last season, and 2 seasons ago TheTud won all 3 games to get promoted from this division, so there is quality here. I have Rule-X to go down however; only turning up to play his league games, perhaps the rustyness will finally catch up

Hyena - PROMOTED
Mouse
TheTud
Rule-X - RELEGATED

4th Division
This is one of the tighest to call; Galea is back playing pes6, and most importantly, enjoying it too. That makes him a very dangerous player; the Joey Barton of PSL perhaps? If his anger gets out of check he could quite easily end up bottom, but reign it in and enjoy the game and he could cruise to a successive promotion. I can see Pilling being the main rival; he's scored 15 goals in the past 2 seasons, the most of any player in the Quads! Galea v Pilling could be a thrilling goalfest that decides who goes up. Roy has dwindled in the bottom division since the start, but the rise up here will kick-start him into action, and will prove too much for La.

Galea - PROMOTED
Pilling
roy462
La31 - RELEGATED

5th Division
Biff could claim to be the unluckiest player of last season, with the highest "golden chances to chances missed" ratio of anyone. Much maligned, he's a better player than 5th division; perhaps the heartache of missing out on promotion from the 4th division back in Season 2 still effects his heart and soul? It's anyones game between the evo-league players behind them... I'm hoping someone can hire in a 4th for this division before the season is out!

Biff - PROMOTED
Spincer182
Runningtings
EMPTY-SPACE - WOODEN SPOON

[Biff]

Great work as ever Moon.

[skybluearmy]

yeah good work always enjoy reading the previews

[ANFIELD SCOUSE]

good luck to all

[Mouse]

Mouse's Predictions


My predictions are based on a pretty good prediction system I've created for 'real-life' football, and with enough results in-putted into the system usually produce pretty accurate results. Testing with other PSL results over the last 2 days that I've seen, I have got around a 85% result accuracy, and 75% score accuracy!


Quad 1

Name GD Pts
---------------------
MoonRat +2 7
Markey +2 7
Sooty -1 3
Eirik -3 0


Quad 2

Name GD Pts
---------------------
Effendi +3 9
Akaash +1 6
PigBenis -2 1
SkyBlue -2 1


Quad 3

Name GD Pts
---------------------
Heyna +3 9
Mouse +1 6
Rule-X -2 1
TheTud -3 1


Quad 4

Name GD Pts
---------------------
Galea +3 7
Pilling +3 7
Roy462 -1 3
LA31 -4 0

[TheMoonRat]

Quad 2

Name GD Pts
---------------------
Effendi +3 9
Akaash +1 6
PigBenis -2 1
SkyBlue -2 1

Sorry I'm always doing this, but I've highlighted a blatant bug

Would love to see what scores it predicted for each match? Great work and a great new addition for each season!

[Mouse]

At the moment dave, it doesn't give the scores, it only gives a difference in goals, say home win - 2 goals Diff.

Al upload the scores when I'm at work later!

[TheMoonRat]

Cool! Does it do it over all results and average things out? Do previous head to head results weight things greater than results against other players? It's interesting to see how it works.

Notice in Quad 2, it has Effendi has first since his record in the mini-league has been overall much better than Akaash, who has struggled of late but against the better players he's come up against. On one hand I can agree with that prediction, on the other hand I tend to think Akaash is the better player in the tougher league. Two ways of looking at it, neither of them incorrect

[Mouse]

Mouse's Game Predictions

As I said above, these are only predictions, although on testing, I did have an 85 % accuracy rate for results and 75% for scoring results.

Eirik v Markey
Predicted Result : Away Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Eirik v Sooty
Predicted Result : Away Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Eirik v TheMoonRat
Predicted Result : Away Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Markey v Sooty
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal

Markey v TheMoonRat
Predicted Result : Draw
TheMoonRat v Sooty
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal

Akaash v Effendi
Predicted Result : Away Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Akaash v Skybluearmy
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Akaash v PigBenis
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Effendi v Skybluearmy
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Effendi v PigBenis
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Skybluearmy v PigBenis
Predicted Result : Draw

Hyena v Mouse
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Hyena v Rule-X
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Hyena v TheTud
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Mouse v Rule-X
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Mouse v TheTud
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
TheTud v Rule-X
Predicted Result : Draw

Galea v LA31
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 2 Goals
Galea v Pilling
Predicted Result : Draw
Galea v Roy462
Predicted Result : Home Win - Diff of 1 Goal
LA31 v Pilling
Predicted Result : Away Win - Diff of 2 Goals
LA31 v Roy462
Predicted Result : Away Win - Diff of 1 Goal
Roy462 v Pilling
Predicted Result : Away Win - Diff of 1 Goal

[TheMoonRat]

Cheers

Crap outcomes if Pools were riding on this

[Mouse]

Cool! Does it do it over all results and average things out? Do previous head to head results weight things greater than results against other players? It's interesting to see how it works.

Notice in Quad 2, it has Effendi has first since his record in the mini-league has been overall much better than Akaash, who has struggled of late but against the better players he's come up against. On one hand I can agree with that prediction, on the other hand I tend to think Akaash is the better player in the tougher league. Two ways of looking at it, neither of them incorrect

At the moment, it gives each team a 'rating' based on a few factors like previous results, current Goal Difference of all game and then factors in goal difference between the 2 teams playing, and then creates a difference between the two, then finally creates the prediction. The higher the difference, the more chance of a bigger result.

BUT, the database is only 89 games big at the moment, which is a very small sample, which means the results shouldn't be THAT accurate, so either we are playing very uniformly, or my program is very fluky at guessing

[Biff]

I guess you've left off Quad 5 because I'm totally unpredictable!

[Rule-X-]

Quote - I have Rule-X to go down however; only turning up to play his league games, perhaps the rustyness will finally catch up

Thats the way to do it! I just get in, no warm up, just right into the action, helps with the intensity! Go Edddd!

[pilling]

Eirik v Sooty
Predicted Result : Away Win - Diff of 1 Goal

Roy462 v Pilling
Predicted Result : Away Win - Diff of 1 Goal

2 out of 2 so far!

[Mouse]

I've changed my predictions colours if the result has been done.

Wrong Result
Right Result, Wrong Score
Right Result, Right Score